Carroll County, Maryland Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MD
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 60th
Carroll County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 59.5, 60th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $32M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Carroll County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 59.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 60th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Carroll County's expected losses come from strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 7.81 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $454K in expected annual loss and about 13.93 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 36.98 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $32M in expected annual loss for a population of 173K.
Beyond physical exposure, Carroll County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Carroll County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1971, including 5 for hurricane events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 24 Maryland counties, Carroll County ranks #13 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | High | 7.81 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | High | 13.93 / yr | $454K |
| Lightning | Medium | 36.98 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.09 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.24 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 5.57 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.71 / yr | $18M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.50 / yr | $4K |
| Hail | Low | 3.72 / yr | $538K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.69 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Low | 0.32 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.08 / yr | $52K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $7K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $9 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Carroll County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1971, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (5), Flood (5), Snowstorm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| April 2014 | Severe Storm | Snowstorm |
| November 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| May 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Carroll County?
Carroll County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 59.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 60th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Carroll County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (High, $4M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $454K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Carroll County compare to other Maryland counties?
Carroll County ranks #13 of 24 Maryland counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Carroll County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Carroll County since 1971, most often 5 for hurricane events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Carroll County's $32M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.