Natchitoches Parish, Louisiana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · LA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 56th
Natchitoches Parish faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 56.4, 56th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Natchitoches Parish at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 56.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 56th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Natchitoches Parish's expected losses come from strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 3.94 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 21.74 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $249K in expected annual loss and about 1.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $13M in expected annual loss for a population of 37K.
Beyond physical exposure, Natchitoches Parish has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Natchitoches Parish has received 41 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 21 for hurricane events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 64 Louisiana counties, Natchitoches Parish ranks #39 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | High | 3.94 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 21.74 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.01 / yr | $249K |
| Hail | Medium | 3.48 / yr | $512K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.06 / yr | $706K |
| Lightning | Medium | 70.46 / yr | $291K |
| Tornado | Low | 1.09 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.49 / yr | $2K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.36 / yr | $7M |
| Drought | Low | 33.53 / yr | $196K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $282K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $37K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 2.37 / yr | $44K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.58 / yr | $158K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Natchitoches Parish has received 41 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (21), Flood (6), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Francine |
| September 2021 | Coastal Storm | Tropical Storm Nicholas |
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Ida |
| March 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| October 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Zeta |
| October 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Delta |
| October 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Delta |
Showing the 10 most recent of 41 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Natchitoches Parish?
Natchitoches Parish has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 56.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 56th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Natchitoches Parish?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (High, $1M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $249K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Natchitoches Parish compare to other Louisiana counties?
Natchitoches Parish ranks #39 of 64 Louisiana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Natchitoches Parish had?
FEMA records 41 federal disaster declarations for Natchitoches Parish since 1977, most often 21 for hurricane events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Natchitoches Parish's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.