Shelby County, Iowa Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 23th
Shelby County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 22.8, 23th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Shelby County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 22.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 23rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Shelby County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 7.65 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 6.16 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $11K in expected annual loss and about 0.38 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $13M in expected annual loss for a population of 12K.
Beyond physical exposure, Shelby County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Shelby County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 8 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in May 2024.
Among 99 Iowa counties, Shelby County ranks #80 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 7.65 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Medium | 6.16 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.38 / yr | $11K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.50 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 5.89 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 4.70 / yr | $698K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.90 / yr | $89K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 6.00 / yr | $301K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 13.84 / yr | $49K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $13K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $4M |
| Lightning | Very Low | 44.14 / yr | $46K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $12K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Shelby County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Flood (6), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2024 | Tornado | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| March 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| February 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorm |
| May 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Shelby County?
Shelby County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 22.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 23th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Shelby County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $1M EAL), Hail (Medium, $1M EAL), Landslide (Low, $11K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Shelby County compare to other Iowa counties?
Shelby County ranks #80 of 99 Iowa counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Shelby County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Shelby County since 1965, most often 8 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Shelby County's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.