Guthrie County, Iowa Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 27th
Guthrie County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 26.5, 27th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $14M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Guthrie County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 26.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 27th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 10.23 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $13K in expected annual loss and about 0.31 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Low risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.57 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $14M in expected annual loss for a population of 11K.
Beyond physical exposure, Guthrie County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Guthrie County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 8 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes (severe storm), declared in February 2022.
Among 99 Iowa counties, Guthrie County ranks #74 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 10.23 / yr | $4M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.31 / yr | $13K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.57 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | Low | 6.20 / yr | $601K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 5.49 / yr | $704K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $39K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.69 / yr | $66K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 14.32 / yr | $58K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 6.42 / yr | $721K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 6.58 / yr | $213K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.79 / yr | $4M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $14K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 44.39 / yr | $37K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Guthrie County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes in February 2022. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Flood (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| August 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| March 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| February 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorm |
| May 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Guthrie County?
Guthrie County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 26.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 27th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Guthrie County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $4M EAL), Landslide (Low, $13K EAL), Tornado (Low, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Guthrie County compare to other Iowa counties?
Guthrie County ranks #74 of 99 Iowa counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Guthrie County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Guthrie County since 1974, most often 8 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes, declared in February 2022.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Guthrie County's $14M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.