Shelby County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 52th
Shelby County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 51.7, 52th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Shelby County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 51.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 52nd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Shelby County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 1.66 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 2.53 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 21K.
Beyond physical exposure, Shelby County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Shelby County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1990, including 2 for tornado events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes (tornado), declared in December 2021.
Among 102 Illinois counties, Shelby County ranks #56 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 1.66 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.53 / yr | $5M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Medium | 48.35 / yr | $642K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.28 / yr | $4K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 7.74 / yr | $584K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 8.37 / yr | $85K |
| Hail | Low | 3.04 / yr | $302K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.86 / yr | $7M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 4.94 / yr | $510K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $36K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.76 / yr | $998K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 1.11 / yr | $29K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Shelby County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1990, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes in December 2021. Most frequent causes: Tornado (2), Biological (2), Snowstorm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| December 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2007 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
| January 1999 | Snowstorm | Il-Winter Storm 1/1/99 |
| June 1990 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Shelby County?
Shelby County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 51.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 52th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Shelby County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $3M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $5M EAL), Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Shelby County compare to other Illinois counties?
Shelby County ranks #56 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Shelby County had?
FEMA records 10 federal disaster declarations for Shelby County since 1990, most often 2 for tornado events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes, declared in December 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Shelby County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.