Pope County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 15th
Pope County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 14.9, 15th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Pope County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 14.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 15th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Low risk — $86K in expected annual loss and about 1.07 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $139K in expected annual loss and about 5.07 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 4K.
Beyond physical exposure, Pope County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Pope County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 4 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 102 Illinois counties, Pope County ranks #93 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.07 / yr | $86K |
| Drought | Low | 5.07 / yr | $139K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 4.16 / yr | $429K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 9.68 / yr | $154K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.94 / yr | $353 |
| Winter Weather | Low | 7.16 / yr | $30K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.32 / yr | $459K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $9K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.05 / yr | $237K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.04 / yr | $61K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 2.54 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Very Low | 54.71 / yr | $24K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Pope County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (4), Biological (2), Tornado (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| November 2013 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| February 2005 | Snowstorm | Record/Near Record Snow |
| May 2003 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
| March 1997 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Pope County?
Pope County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 14.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 15th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Pope County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL), Ice Storm (Low, $86K EAL), Drought (Low, $139K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Pope County compare to other Illinois counties?
Pope County ranks #93 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Pope County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Pope County since 1973, most often 4 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Pope County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.