McLean County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 87th
McLean County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 86.9, 87th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $81M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates McLean County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 86.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 87th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $26M in expected annual loss and about 4.89 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 3.45 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $9M in expected annual loss and about 1.31 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $81M in expected annual loss for a population of 171K.
Beyond physical exposure, McLean County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: McLean County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 3 for snowstorm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 102 Illinois counties, McLean County ranks #15 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 4.89 / yr | $26M |
| Drought | High | 3.45 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | Medium | 1.31 / yr | $9M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.27 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 10.84 / yr | $358K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 6.26 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.29 / yr | $33M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.13 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.47 / yr | $302K |
| Lightning | Medium | 46.83 / yr | $386K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.20 / yr | $2K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $22K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
McLean County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Snowstorm (3), Biological (2), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2011 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2007 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| January 2001 | Snowstorm | Illinois Winter Snow Storms |
| January 1999 | Snowstorm | Il-Winter Storm 1/1/99 |
| March 1990 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Ice Storm |
| April 1974 | Tornado | Tornadoes |
| April 1973 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for McLean County?
McLean County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 86.9 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 87th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in McLean County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $26M EAL), Drought (High, $3M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $9M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does McLean County compare to other Illinois counties?
McLean County ranks #15 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has McLean County had?
FEMA records 11 federal disaster declarations for McLean County since 1968, most often 3 for snowstorm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. McLean County's $81M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.