Hardin County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 8th
Hardin County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 8.3, 8th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Hardin County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 8.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 8th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Hardin County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $631K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $97K in expected annual loss and about 5.51 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Low risk — $46K in expected annual loss and about 1.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 4K.
Beyond physical exposure, Hardin County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Hardin County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 1997, including 3 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 102 Illinois counties, Hardin County ranks #98 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $631K |
| Drought | Low | 5.51 / yr | $97K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.01 / yr | $46K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 4.23 / yr | $313K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 9.47 / yr | $147K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.73 / yr | $307 |
| Tornado | Low | 0.15 / yr | $467K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $8K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 7.00 / yr | $19K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.05 / yr | $179K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 53.52 / yr | $50K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.08 / yr | $48K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.86 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Hardin County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 1997, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (3), Biological (2), Hurricane (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| February 2005 | Snowstorm | Record/Near Record Snow |
| May 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
| March 1997 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Hardin County?
Hardin County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 8.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 8th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Hardin County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $631K EAL), Drought (Low, $97K EAL), Ice Storm (Low, $46K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Hardin County compare to other Illinois counties?
Hardin County ranks #98 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Hardin County had?
FEMA records 8 federal disaster declarations for Hardin County since 1997, most often 3 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Hardin County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.