Alexander County, Illinois Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IL
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 44th
Alexander County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 44.1, 44th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Alexander County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 44.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 44th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Alexander County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $375K in expected annual loss and about 5.31 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $134K in expected annual loss and about 1.28 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 5K.
Beyond physical exposure, Alexander County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Alexander County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 7 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 102 Illinois counties, Alexander County ranks #64 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $4M |
| Drought | Medium | 5.31 / yr | $375K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.28 / yr | $134K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.90 / yr | $470K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.56 / yr | $1K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 11.16 / yr | $257K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.22 / yr | $665K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 6.89 / yr | $35K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 7.25 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.05 / yr | $395K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.20 / yr | $60K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $4K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 55.73 / yr | $39K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $557 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Alexander County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (7), Flood (6), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2003 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2002 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
| March 1997 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 1995 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Alexander County?
Alexander County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 44.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 44th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Alexander County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $4M EAL), Drought (Medium, $375K EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $134K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Alexander County compare to other Illinois counties?
Alexander County ranks #64 of 102 Illinois counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Alexander County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Alexander County since 1969, most often 7 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Alexander County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.