Rio Grande County, Colorado Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 46th
Rio Grande County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 45.8, 46th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Rio Grande County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 45.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 46th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $55K in expected annual loss and about 0.23 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 75.34 events per year; and avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at High risk — $959K in expected annual loss and about 0.07 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 11K.
Beyond physical exposure, Rio Grande County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Rio Grande County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 3 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 64 Colorado counties, Rio Grande County ranks #28 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 0.23 / yr | $55K |
| Drought | High | 75.34 / yr | $1M |
| Avalanche | High | 0.07 / yr | $959K |
| Lightning | High | 54.48 / yr | $532K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $448K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $67K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.82 / yr | $705K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.14 / yr | $5M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 16.73 / yr | $31K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.27 / yr | $40K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $22K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $73K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $5K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $9K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Rio Grande County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Fire (3), Biological (2), Flood (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2013 | Fire | West Fork Fire Complex |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| June 2002 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2002 | Fire | Million Fire |
| January 1977 | Drought | Drought |
| July 1973 | Flood | Flooding & Landslides |
| September 1970 | Flood | Heavy Rains & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Rio Grande County?
Rio Grande County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 45.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 46th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Rio Grande County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $55K EAL), Drought (High, $1M EAL), Avalanche (High, $959K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Rio Grande County compare to other Colorado counties?
Rio Grande County ranks #28 of 64 Colorado counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Rio Grande County had?
FEMA records 9 federal disaster declarations for Rio Grande County since 1970, most often 3 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Rio Grande County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.