Rio Grande County, Colorado Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CO

Low

Composite Risk Score

45.8

National percentile: 46th

Rio Grande County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 45.8, 46th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Overall natural disaster risk in Rio Grande County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 45.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 46th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $55K in expected annual loss and about 0.23 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 75.34 events per year; and avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at High risk — $959K in expected annual loss and about 0.07 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 11K.

Beyond physical exposure, Rio Grande County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.

History supports the rating: Rio Grande County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 3 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.

Among 64 Colorado counties, Rio Grande County ranks #28 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $9M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very Low Capacity to recover
Population 11K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Medium $55K/yr
High $1M/yr
High $959K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Landslide Medium 0.23 / yr$55K
Drought High 75.34 / yr$1M
Avalanche High 0.07 / yr$959K
Lightning High 54.48 / yr$532K
Earthquake Low 0.00 / yr$448K
Wildfire Low 0.00 / yr$67K
Cold Wave Low 0.82 / yr$705K
Riverine Flood Low 0.14 / yr$5M
Winter Weather Low 16.73 / yr$31K
Hail Very Low 0.27 / yr$40K
Heat Wave Very Low 0.18 / yr$22K
Tornado Very Low 0.05 / yr$73K
Ice Storm Very Low 0.01 / yr$5K
Strong Wind Very Low 0.05 / yr$9K
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Hurricane Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Rio Grande County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Fire (3), Biological (2), Flood (2).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
June 2013FireWest Fork Fire Complex
September 2005Coastal StormHurricane Katrina Evacuation
June 2002FireWildfires
June 2002FireMillion Fire
January 1977DroughtDrought
July 1973FloodFlooding & Landslides
September 1970FloodHeavy Rains & Flooding

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Rio Grande County?

Rio Grande County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 45.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 46th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Rio Grande County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $55K EAL), Drought (High, $1M EAL), Avalanche (High, $959K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Rio Grande County compare to other Colorado counties?

Rio Grande County ranks #28 of 64 Colorado counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Rio Grande County had?

FEMA records 9 federal disaster declarations for Rio Grande County since 1970, most often 3 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Rio Grande County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.