Lincoln County, Colorado Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CO
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 7th
Lincoln County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 7.5, 7th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Lincoln County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 7.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 7th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $573K in expected annual loss and about 6.32 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $408K in expected annual loss and about 84.71 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Very Low risk — $89K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 6K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lincoln County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Lincoln County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes (flood), declared in August 2023.
Among 64 Colorado counties, Lincoln County ranks #53 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Low | 6.32 / yr | $573K |
| Drought | Low | 84.71 / yr | $408K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $89K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.49 / yr | $64K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.95 / yr | $503K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.36 / yr | $330K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 2.62 / yr | $427K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $29K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 50.10 / yr | $67K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.61 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $6K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.34 / yr | $8K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.29 / yr | $7 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lincoln County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes in August 2023. Most frequent causes: Flood (3), Biological (2), Coastal Storm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| June 2002 | Fire | Wildfires |
| May 2001 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| August 1997 | Flood | Severe Storms, Heavy Rain, Flash Floods, Flooding, Mudslides |
| January 1977 | Drought | Drought |
| June 1965 | Tornado | Tornadoes, Severe Storms & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lincoln County?
Lincoln County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 7.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 7th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lincoln County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Low, $573K EAL), Drought (Low, $408K EAL), Wildfire (Very Low, $89K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lincoln County compare to other Colorado counties?
Lincoln County ranks #53 of 64 Colorado counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lincoln County had?
FEMA records 10 federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County since 1965, most often 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes, declared in August 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lincoln County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.