Costilla County, Colorado Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CO
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 7th
Costilla County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 6.6, 7th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $2M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Costilla County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 6.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 7th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $7K in expected annual loss and about 0.40 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $121K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $296K in expected annual loss and about 95.43 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $2M in expected annual loss for a population of 3K.
Beyond physical exposure, Costilla County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Costilla County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 3 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 64 Colorado counties, Costilla County ranks #54 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Low | 0.40 / yr | $7K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $121K |
| Drought | Medium | 95.43 / yr | $296K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $67K |
| Lightning | Low | 62.94 / yr | $68K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $57 |
| Winter Weather | Low | 12.99 / yr | $14K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.86 / yr | $159K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.02 / yr | $36K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.43 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $20K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.21 / yr | $4K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $8K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Costilla County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Fire (3), Biological (2), Flood (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2018 | Fire | Spring Creek Fire |
| June 2006 | Fire | Malo Vega Fire |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| April 2003 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| June 2002 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 1977 | Drought | Drought |
| July 1973 | Flood | Flooding & Landslides |
| September 1970 | Flood | Heavy Rains & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Costilla County?
Costilla County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 6.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 7th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Costilla County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Low, $7K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $121K EAL), Drought (Medium, $296K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Costilla County compare to other Colorado counties?
Costilla County ranks #54 of 64 Colorado counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Costilla County had?
FEMA records 10 federal disaster declarations for Costilla County since 1970, most often 3 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Costilla County's $2M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.