San Bernardino County, California Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CA
Very HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 100th
San Bernardino County faces very high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 99.8, 100th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $2.08B.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in San Bernardino County is very high, with a National Risk Index score of 99.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 100th national percentile and among the most at-risk counties in the United States. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Very High risk — $18M in expected annual loss and about 27.53 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Very High risk — $146M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Very High risk — $922M in expected annual loss and about 0.11 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $2.08B in expected annual loss for a population of 2.18M.
Beyond physical exposure, San Bernardino County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: San Bernardino County has received 61 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 33 for fire events and 13 for flood events. The most recent was Bridge Fire (fire), declared in September 2024.
Among 58 California counties, San Bernardino County ranks #5 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Very High | 27.53 / yr | $18M |
| Wildfire | Very High | 0.01 / yr | $146M |
| Earthquake | Very High | 0.11 / yr | $922M |
| Riverine Flood | Very High | 12.96 / yr | $960M |
| Heat Wave | High | 11.61 / yr | $18M |
| Strong Wind | High | 0.18 / yr | $4M |
| Lightning | High | 16.79 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 0.07 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.76 / yr | $4M |
| Avalanche | Low | 0.07 / yr | $144K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 2.11 / yr | $62K |
| Drought | Low | 78.40 / yr | $37K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3 |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.01 / yr | $392K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
San Bernardino County has received 61 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Bridge Fire in September 2024. Most frequent causes: Fire (33), Flood (13), Severe Storm (7).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2024 | Fire | Bridge Fire |
| September 2024 | Fire | Line Fire |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| January 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| October 2020 | Fire | Blue Ridge Fire |
| October 2020 | Fire | Wildfires |
| September 2020 | Fire | El Dorado Fire |
| August 2020 | Fire | Apple Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
Showing the 10 most recent of 61 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for San Bernardino County?
San Bernardino County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 99.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very High category and the 100th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in San Bernardino County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Very High, $18M EAL), Wildfire (Very High, $146M EAL), Earthquake (Very High, $922M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does San Bernardino County compare to other California counties?
San Bernardino County ranks #5 of 58 California counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has San Bernardino County had?
FEMA records 61 federal disaster declarations for San Bernardino County since 1965, most often 33 for fire events and 13 for flood events. The most recent was Bridge Fire, declared in September 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. San Bernardino County's $2.08B EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.