Alameda County, California Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CA

Very High

Composite Risk Score

99.8

National percentile: 100th

Alameda County faces very high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 99.8, 100th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $1.88B.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

FEMA's National Risk Index rates Alameda County at very high composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 99.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 100th national percentile and among the most at-risk counties in the United States. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Most of Alameda County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Very High risk — $1.35B in expected annual loss and about 0.14 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 24.63 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Very High risk — $491M in expected annual loss and about 2.25 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $1.88B in expected annual loss for a population of 1.68M.

Beyond physical exposure, Alameda County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.

The county's disaster history tells the same story: Alameda County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 8 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (severe storm), declared in April 2023.

Among 58 California counties, Alameda County ranks #3 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $1.88B Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Low Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very High Capacity to recover
Population 1.68M Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Very High $1.35B/yr
High $6M/yr
Very High $491M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Earthquake Very High 0.14 / yr$1.35B
Landslide High 24.63 / yr$6M
Riverine Flood Very High 2.25 / yr$491M
Wildfire High 0.01 / yr$12M
Heat Wave High 7.10 / yr$13M
Coastal Flood High 0.98 / yr$5M
Drought Medium 58.43 / yr$1M
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$348
Tornado Medium 0.09 / yr$2M
Tsunami Low 0.34 / yr$3M
Lightning Low 4.50 / yr$235K
Hail Low 0.04 / yr$167K
Strong Wind Very Low 0.04 / yr$94K
Avalanche Very Low 0.01 / yr$4
Winter Weather Very Low 0.69 / yr$3K
Cold Wave Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Hurricane Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Ice Storm Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Alameda County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides in April 2023. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Flood (7), Biological (2).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
April 2023Severe StormSevere Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides
January 2023FloodSevere Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides
January 2023FloodSevere Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
April 2017FloodSevere Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides
March 2017FloodSevere Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides
February 2017Severe StormSevere Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides
June 2006Severe StormSevere Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides
February 2006Severe StormSevere Storms, Flooding, Mudslides, and Landslides

Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Alameda County?

Alameda County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 99.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very High category and the 100th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Alameda County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Very High, $1.35B EAL), Landslide (High, $6M EAL), Riverine Flood (Very High, $491M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Alameda County compare to other California counties?

Alameda County ranks #3 of 58 California counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very high rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Alameda County had?

FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Alameda County since 1970, most often 8 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared in April 2023.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Alameda County's $1.88B EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.