Fresno County, California Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CA
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 99th
Fresno County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 99.3, 99th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $557M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Fresno County at high composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 99.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 99th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Very High risk — $223M in expected annual loss and about 88.24 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at High risk — $136M in expected annual loss and about 0.11 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at High risk — $166M in expected annual loss and about 4.11 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $557M in expected annual loss for a population of 1.01M.
Beyond physical exposure, Fresno County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Fresno County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 6 for flood events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (severe storm), declared in April 2023.
Among 58 California counties, Fresno County ranks #11 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Very High | 88.24 / yr | $223M |
| Earthquake | High | 0.11 / yr | $136M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 4.11 / yr | $166M |
| Wildfire | High | 0.00 / yr | $14M |
| Landslide | High | 90.07 / yr | $519K |
| Heat Wave | High | 6.99 / yr | $12M |
| Hail | High | 0.17 / yr | $3M |
| Lightning | High | 12.75 / yr | $761K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.52 / yr | $1M |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $690 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $14 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 11.06 / yr | $13K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $110K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Fresno County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides in April 2023. Most frequent causes: Flood (6), Severe Storm (4), Fire (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| January 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| January 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| October 2020 | Fire | Wildfires |
| September 2020 | Fire | Creek Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2016 | Fire | Goose Fire |
| March 2007 | Freezing | Severe Freeze |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Fresno County?
Fresno County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 99.3 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 99th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Fresno County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Very High, $223M EAL), Earthquake (High, $136M EAL), Riverine Flood (High, $166M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Fresno County compare to other California counties?
Fresno County ranks #11 of 58 California counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Fresno County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Fresno County since 1969, most often 6 for flood events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides, declared in April 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Fresno County's $557M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.