Van Buren County, Arkansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · AR
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 51th
Van Buren County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 50.6, 51th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Van Buren County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 50.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 51st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Van Buren County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.37 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.53 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $7K in expected annual loss and about 1.46 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 16K.
Beyond physical exposure, Van Buren County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Van Buren County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1976, including 11 for severe storm events and 4 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 75 Arkansas counties, Van Buren County ranks #44 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.37 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.53 / yr | $3M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.46 / yr | $7K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $777K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $160K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 11.88 / yr | $374K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.14 / yr | $56K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.15 / yr | $436K |
| Lightning | Low | 59.96 / yr | $157K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.96 / yr | $4M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $14K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.37 / yr | $271K |
| Hail | Very Low | 5.22 / yr | $69K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 10.67 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Van Buren County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1976, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Severe Ice Storm (4), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| January 2014 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated Flooding |
| December 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Van Buren County?
Van Buren County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 50.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 51th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Van Buren County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $1M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $3M EAL), Landslide (Low, $7K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Van Buren County compare to other Arkansas counties?
Van Buren County ranks #44 of 75 Arkansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Van Buren County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Van Buren County since 1976, most often 11 for severe storm events and 4 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Van Buren County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.