Morgan County, Utah Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · UT
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 3th
Morgan County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 3.5, 3th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Morgan County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 3.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 3rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Morgan County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $111K in expected annual loss and about 0.67 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $317K in expected annual loss and about 42.29 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 12K.
Beyond physical exposure, Morgan County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Morgan County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 4 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Flooding (flood), declared in December 2023.
Among 29 Utah counties, Morgan County ranks #26 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 0.67 / yr | $111K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 42.29 / yr | $317K |
| Avalanche | Low | 0.03 / yr | $11K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $186K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 35.45 / yr | $157K |
| Drought | Very Low | 56.64 / yr | $16K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 1.03 / yr | $158K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.21 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $23K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $46K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $25K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.28 / yr | $6K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Morgan County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Flooding in December 2023. Most frequent causes: Flood (4), Biological (2), Severe Storm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| December 2023 | Flood | Flooding |
| January 2021 | Severe Storm | Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| March 1986 | Flood | Heavy Rains, Snowmelt & Flooding |
| April 1983 | Flood | Severe Storms, Landslides & Flooding |
| January 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Morgan County?
Morgan County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 3.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 3th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Morgan County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $111K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $1M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $317K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Morgan County compare to other Utah counties?
Morgan County ranks #26 of 29 Utah counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Morgan County had?
FEMA records 9 federal disaster declarations for Morgan County since 1977, most often 4 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Flooding, declared in December 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Morgan County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.