Grand County, Utah Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · UT
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 10th
Grand County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 10.3, 10th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Grand County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 10.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 10th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 48.27 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $24K in expected annual loss and about 2.44 events per year; and avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Medium risk — $457K in expected annual loss and about 0.03 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 10K.
Beyond physical exposure, Grand County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Grand County has received 4 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 2 for biological events and 1 for coastal storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 29 Utah counties, Grand County ranks #20 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 48.27 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Low | 2.44 / yr | $24K |
| Avalanche | Medium | 0.03 / yr | $457K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $81K |
| Drought | Low | 105.12 / yr | $62K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $101K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.87 / yr | $161K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 10.14 / yr | $25K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 2.54 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $20K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.19 / yr | $23K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $511 |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $4K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Grand County has received 4 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Coastal Storm (1), Drought (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| January 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Grand County?
Grand County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 10.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 10th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Grand County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $1M EAL), Landslide (Low, $24K EAL), Avalanche (Medium, $457K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Grand County compare to other Utah counties?
Grand County ranks #20 of 29 Utah counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Grand County had?
FEMA records 4 federal disaster declarations for Grand County since 1977, most often 2 for biological events and 1 for coastal storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Grand County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.