Todd County, South Dakota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · SD
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 37th
Todd County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 36.6, 37th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Todd County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 36.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 37th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $199K in expected annual loss and about 15.27 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 5.32 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 9K.
Beyond physical exposure, Todd County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Todd County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1976, including 4 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorm (winter storm), declared in February 2023.
Among 66 South Dakota counties, Todd County ranks #22 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 15.27 / yr | $199K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 5.32 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.25 / yr | $65K |
| Hail | Low | 3.56 / yr | $171K |
| Lightning | Low | 38.27 / yr | $112K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.40 / yr | $495K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.25 / yr | $191K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.26 / yr | $90K |
| Drought | Very Low | 35.65 / yr | $12K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.41 / yr | $145 |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.57 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $22K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Todd County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1976, most recently Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorm in February 2023. Most frequent causes: Flood (4), Severe Storm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, and Flooding |
| March 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| December 2008 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Record and Near Record Snow |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| July 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2001 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Ice Jams |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Todd County?
Todd County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 36.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 37th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Todd County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $2M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $199K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Todd County compare to other South Dakota counties?
Todd County ranks #22 of 66 South Dakota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Todd County had?
FEMA records 13 federal disaster declarations for Todd County since 1976, most often 4 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorm, declared in February 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Todd County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.