Douglas County, South Dakota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · SD
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 10th
Douglas County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 10.4, 10th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Douglas County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 10.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 10th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Douglas County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $446K in expected annual loss and about 22.45 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 6.26 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $179K in expected annual loss and about 0.62 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 3K.
Beyond physical exposure, Douglas County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Douglas County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1976, including 7 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding (flood), declared in August 2024.
Among 66 South Dakota counties, Douglas County ranks #44 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Low | 22.45 / yr | $446K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 6.26 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.62 / yr | $179K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 15.74 / yr | $102K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $71K |
| Hail | Low | 5.15 / yr | $368K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.24 / yr | $915K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.02 / yr | $249K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $35K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 6.26 / yr | $29K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.64 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $25 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 36.47 / yr | $22K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Douglas County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1976, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding in August 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (7), Flood (6), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| November 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, and Flooding |
| May 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| May 2010 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| July 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| December 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Douglas County?
Douglas County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 10.4 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 10th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Douglas County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Low, $446K EAL), Cold Wave (Low, $2M EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $179K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Douglas County compare to other South Dakota counties?
Douglas County ranks #44 of 66 South Dakota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Douglas County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Douglas County since 1976, most often 7 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding, declared in August 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Douglas County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.