Guernsey County, Ohio Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OH
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 38th
Guernsey County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 37.5, 38th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Guernsey County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 37.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 38th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $30K in expected annual loss and about 1.01 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $331K in expected annual loss and about 3.17 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $256K in expected annual loss and about 5.97 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 38K.
Beyond physical exposure, Guernsey County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
History supports the rating: Guernsey County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 10 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 88 Ohio counties, Guernsey County ranks #65 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Low | 1.01 / yr | $30K |
| Hail | Low | 3.17 / yr | $331K |
| Drought | Low | 5.97 / yr | $256K |
| Lightning | Medium | 43.15 / yr | $263K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.07 / yr | $7M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.39 / yr | $90K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.26 / yr | $265K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.05 / yr | $39K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $24K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.68 / yr | $319K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $110K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.16 / yr | $588K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $12K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 2.79 / yr | $101K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Guernsey County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Flood (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides |
| August 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| June 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms |
| July 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Wind Storm Associated with Tropical Depression Ike |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| February 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Guernsey County?
Guernsey County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 37.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 38th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Guernsey County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Low, $30K EAL), Hail (Low, $331K EAL), Drought (Low, $256K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Guernsey County compare to other Ohio counties?
Guernsey County ranks #65 of 88 Ohio counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Guernsey County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Guernsey County since 1968, most often 10 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Guernsey County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.