Carroll County, Ohio Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OH
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 20th
Carroll County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 19.9, 20th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Carroll County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 19.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 20th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $14K in expected annual loss and about 0.68 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $295K in expected annual loss and about 41.71 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $275K in expected annual loss and about 4.20 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 27K.
Beyond physical exposure, Carroll County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Carroll County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 5 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 88 Ohio counties, Carroll County ranks #83 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Low | 0.68 / yr | $14K |
| Lightning | Medium | 41.71 / yr | $295K |
| Hail | Low | 4.20 / yr | $275K |
| Drought | Low | 2.23 / yr | $89K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.79 / yr | $5M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $20K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.95 / yr | $151K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.30 / yr | $31K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.17 / yr | $396K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.37 / yr | $233K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $49K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.53 / yr | $21K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $9K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 3.00 / yr | $85K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Carroll County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Biological (2), Snowstorm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms |
| October 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Wind Storm Associated with Tropical Depression Ike |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| February 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2003 | Tornado | Tornadoes, Flooding, Severe Storms, and High Winds |
| January 1978 | Snowstorm | Blizzards & Snowstorms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Carroll County?
Carroll County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 19.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 20th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Carroll County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Low, $14K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $295K EAL), Hail (Low, $275K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Carroll County compare to other Ohio counties?
Carroll County ranks #83 of 88 Ohio counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Carroll County had?
FEMA records 11 federal disaster declarations for Carroll County since 1977, most often 5 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Carroll County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.