Carroll County, New Hampshire Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NH
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 71th
Carroll County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 71.0, 71th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $31M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Carroll County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 71.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 71st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $423K in expected annual loss and about 22.24 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $712K in expected annual loss and about 1.29 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.08 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $31M in expected annual loss for a population of 50K.
Beyond physical exposure, Carroll County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Carroll County has received 35 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 13 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Flooding (winter storm), declared in July 2024.
Among 10 New Hampshire counties, Carroll County ranks #6 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 22.24 / yr | $423K |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.29 / yr | $712K |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.08 / yr | $5M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.64 / yr | $23M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.33 / yr | $17K |
| Avalanche | Low | 0.01 / yr | $4K |
| Lightning | Medium | 19.10 / yr | $467K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $560K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.73 / yr | $800K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.92 / yr | $179K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $19K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.59 / yr | $219K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $227K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.65 / yr | $39K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.19 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Carroll County has received 35 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Flooding in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (13), Flood (6), Snowstorm (6).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| February 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm and Flooding |
| September 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2018 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| January 2018 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm and Flooding |
| June 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 35 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Carroll County?
Carroll County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 71.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 71th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Carroll County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $423K EAL), Ice Storm (High, $712K EAL), Hurricane (Medium, $5M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Carroll County compare to other New Hampshire counties?
Carroll County ranks #6 of 10 New Hampshire counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Carroll County had?
FEMA records 35 federal disaster declarations for Carroll County since 1973, most often 13 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Flooding, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Carroll County's $31M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.