St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · LA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 76th
St. Bernard Parish faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 75.6, 76th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and coastal flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $35M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates St. Bernard Parish at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 75.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 76th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of St. Bernard Parish's expected losses come from hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $25M in expected annual loss and about 0.24 events per year; coastal flood (seawater inundation from storm surge, high tides, and rising sea levels) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 4.21 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $550K in expected annual loss and about 82.61 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $35M in expected annual loss for a population of 44K.
Beyond physical exposure, St. Bernard Parish has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: St. Bernard Parish has received 48 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 30 for hurricane events and 5 for coastal storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 64 Louisiana counties, St. Bernard Parish ranks #26 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | High | 0.24 / yr | $25M |
| Coastal Flood | Medium | 4.21 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Medium | 82.61 / yr | $550K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 9.29 / yr | $848K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.47 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Low | 1.18 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $24K |
| Drought | Low | 25.56 / yr | $41K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.82 / yr | $137K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $99K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.68 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 0.25 / yr | $23K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $12K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.84 / yr | $120K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $18 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
St. Bernard Parish has received 48 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (30), Coastal Storm (5), Flood (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Francine |
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Francine |
| September 2023 | Other | Seawater Intrusion |
| September 2021 | Coastal Storm | Tropical Storm Nicholas |
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Ida |
| March 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Zeta |
Showing the 10 most recent of 48 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for St. Bernard Parish?
St. Bernard Parish has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 75.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 76th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in St. Bernard Parish?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (High, $25M EAL), Coastal Flood (Medium, $2M EAL), Lightning (Medium, $550K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does St. Bernard Parish compare to other Louisiana counties?
St. Bernard Parish ranks #26 of 64 Louisiana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has St. Bernard Parish had?
FEMA records 48 federal disaster declarations for St. Bernard Parish since 1965, most often 30 for hurricane events and 5 for coastal storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. St. Bernard Parish's $35M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.