Lincoln County, Kansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KS
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 14th
Lincoln County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 13.5, 14th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Lincoln County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 13.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 14th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 9.01 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $525K in expected annual loss and about 0.94 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Very Low risk — $72K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 3K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lincoln County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Lincoln County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 9 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Wildfires (severe storm), declared in May 2025.
Among 105 Kansas counties, Lincoln County ranks #78 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 9.01 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.94 / yr | $525K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $72K |
| Drought | Low | 32.15 / yr | $188K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 12.58 / yr | $52K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.75 / yr | $664K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 5.63 / yr | $309K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 9.16 / yr | $98K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.82 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.17 / yr | $36 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $9K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 2.89 / yr | $67K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 46.88 / yr | $20K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lincoln County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Wildfires in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Biological (2), Flood (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Wildfires |
| August 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight Line Winds |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding,Landslides,and Mudslides |
| March 2017 | Fire | Ellsworth-Lincoln-Russell Fire Complex |
| July 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| December 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lincoln County?
Lincoln County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 13.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 14th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lincoln County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $1M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $525K EAL), Wildfire (Very Low, $72K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lincoln County compare to other Kansas counties?
Lincoln County ranks #78 of 105 Kansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lincoln County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County since 1973, most often 9 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Wildfires, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lincoln County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.