Ellsworth County, Kansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KS
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 15th
Ellsworth County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 15.2, 15th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Ellsworth County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 15.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 15th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Ellsworth County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $577K in expected annual loss and about 0.92 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $371K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $626K in expected annual loss and about 9.86 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 6K.
Beyond physical exposure, Ellsworth County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Ellsworth County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 11 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in August 2024.
Among 105 Kansas counties, Ellsworth County ranks #70 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 0.92 / yr | $577K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $371K |
| Hail | Low | 9.86 / yr | $626K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 13.05 / yr | $107K |
| Drought | Low | 41.85 / yr | $230K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.78 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 6.20 / yr | $506K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.89 / yr | $642K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 9.21 / yr | $207K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.86 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $18K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $34 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 46.42 / yr | $33K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Ellsworth County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in August 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Biological (2), Flood (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight Line Winds |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding,Landslides,and Mudslides |
| March 2017 | Fire | Ellsworth-Lincoln-Russell Fire Complex |
| February 2017 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| July 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| October 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Ellsworth County?
Ellsworth County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 15.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 15th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Ellsworth County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $577K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $371K EAL), Hail (Low, $626K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Ellsworth County compare to other Kansas counties?
Ellsworth County ranks #70 of 105 Kansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Ellsworth County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Ellsworth County since 1969, most often 11 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in August 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Ellsworth County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.