Elk County, Kansas Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KS

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

14.6

National percentile: 15th

Elk County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 14.6, 15th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Elk County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 14.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 15th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Low risk — $64K in expected annual loss and about 0.55 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Very Low risk — $1K in expected annual loss and about 0.16 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 2K.

Beyond physical exposure, Elk County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.

History supports the rating: Elk County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1976, including 14 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Wildfires (severe storm), declared in May 2025.

Among 105 Kansas counties, Elk County ranks #73 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $4M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Low Capacity to recover
Population 2K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Medium $1M/yr
Low $64K/yr
Very Low $1K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Wildfire Medium 0.01 / yr$1M
Ice Storm Low 0.55 / yr$64K
Landslide Very Low 0.16 / yr$1K
Drought Low 46.28 / yr$77K
Hail Low 8.14 / yr$157K
Winter Weather Low 9.11 / yr$30K
Tornado Low 0.51 / yr$552K
Heat Wave Very Low 15.37 / yr$98K
Strong Wind Low 6.53 / yr$202K
Cold Wave Very Low 1.37 / yr$189K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$19K
Riverine Flood Very Low 0.82 / yr$2M
Hurricane Very Low 0.01 / yr$3K
Lightning Very Low 51.15 / yr$34K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Elk County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1976, most recently Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Wildfires in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Biological (2), Flood (2).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
May 2025Severe StormSevere Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Wildfires
July 2024Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
June 2019Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding,Landslides,and Mudslides
May 2019Severe StormTornadoes and Flooding
July 2015Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
October 2013Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding
August 2010Severe StormSevere Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes
March 2010Severe StormSevere Winter Storms and Snowstorm

Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Elk County?

Elk County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 14.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 15th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Elk County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $1M EAL), Ice Storm (Low, $64K EAL), Landslide (Very Low, $1K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Elk County compare to other Kansas counties?

Elk County ranks #73 of 105 Kansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Elk County had?

FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Elk County since 1976, most often 14 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Wildfires, declared in May 2025.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Elk County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.