Elk County, Kansas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KS
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 15th
Elk County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 14.6, 15th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Elk County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 14.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 15th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Low risk — $64K in expected annual loss and about 0.55 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Very Low risk — $1K in expected annual loss and about 0.16 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 2K.
Beyond physical exposure, Elk County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Elk County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1976, including 14 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Wildfires (severe storm), declared in May 2025.
Among 105 Kansas counties, Elk County ranks #73 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.55 / yr | $64K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.16 / yr | $1K |
| Drought | Low | 46.28 / yr | $77K |
| Hail | Low | 8.14 / yr | $157K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.11 / yr | $30K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.51 / yr | $552K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 15.37 / yr | $98K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 6.53 / yr | $202K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.37 / yr | $189K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $19K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.82 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 51.15 / yr | $34K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Elk County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1976, most recently Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Wildfires in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Biological (2), Flood (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Wildfires |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding,Landslides,and Mudslides |
| May 2019 | Severe Storm | Tornadoes and Flooding |
| July 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| October 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| March 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Elk County?
Elk County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 14.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 15th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Elk County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $1M EAL), Ice Storm (Low, $64K EAL), Landslide (Very Low, $1K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Elk County compare to other Kansas counties?
Elk County ranks #73 of 105 Kansas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Elk County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Elk County since 1976, most often 14 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Wildfires, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Elk County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.