Van Buren County, Iowa Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 34th
Van Buren County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 33.6, 34th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Van Buren County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 33.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 34th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $825K in expected annual loss and about 11.25 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $593K in expected annual loss and about 44.97 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $865K in expected annual loss and about 9.16 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 7K.
Beyond physical exposure, Van Buren County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Van Buren County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 6 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes (severe storm), declared in February 2022.
Among 99 Iowa counties, Van Buren County ranks #55 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 11.25 / yr | $825K |
| Lightning | Medium | 44.97 / yr | $593K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 9.16 / yr | $865K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.25 / yr | $6K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.50 / yr | $502K |
| Hail | Low | 3.57 / yr | $251K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.32 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $41K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.29 / yr | $4M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $67K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 11.53 / yr | $15K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 4.58 / yr | $167K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.32 / yr | $10K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Van Buren County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes in February 2022. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (6), Flood (6), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm and Tornadoes |
| May 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| May 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2008 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Van Buren County?
Van Buren County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 33.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 34th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Van Buren County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $825K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $593K EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $865K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Van Buren County compare to other Iowa counties?
Van Buren County ranks #55 of 99 Iowa counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Van Buren County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for Van Buren County since 1965, most often 6 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes, declared in February 2022.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Van Buren County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.