Page County, Iowa Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 40th
Page County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 40.2, 40th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $12M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Page County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 40.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 40th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 8.21 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 9.39 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $697K in expected annual loss and about 6.14 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $12M in expected annual loss for a population of 15K.
Beyond physical exposure, Page County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Page County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 6 for flood events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 99 Iowa counties, Page County ranks #40 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Medium | 8.21 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 9.39 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Medium | 6.14 / yr | $697K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.42 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 4.32 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.17 / yr | $2K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 4.11 / yr | $532K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 12.32 / yr | $46K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.57 / yr | $54K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $18K |
| Lightning | Low | 46.26 / yr | $107K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.71 / yr | $3M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $29K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Page County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (6), Severe Storm (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| February 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorm |
| May 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2008 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 1998 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Page County?
Page County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 40.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 40th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Page County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Drought (Medium, $1M EAL), Hail (Medium, $697K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Page County compare to other Iowa counties?
Page County ranks #40 of 99 Iowa counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Page County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for Page County since 1965, most often 6 for flood events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Page County's $12M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.