Adair County, Iowa Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · IA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 49th
Adair County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 49.5, 49th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $14M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Adair County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 49.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 49th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Adair County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 9.01 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 5.32 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $905K in expected annual loss and about 6.21 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $14M in expected annual loss for a population of 7K.
Beyond physical exposure, Adair County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Adair County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 7 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in May 2024.
Among 99 Iowa counties, Adair County ranks #27 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 9.01 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 5.32 / yr | $5M |
| Hail | Medium | 6.21 / yr | $905K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.29 / yr | $900K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.52 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.24 / yr | $2K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 7.32 / yr | $502K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.73 / yr | $48K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 12.89 / yr | $38K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $16K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.32 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $11K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 45.35 / yr | $30K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Adair County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (7), Flood (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2018 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| February 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorm |
| May 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2008 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2007 | Snowstorm | Snow |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Adair County?
Adair County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 49.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 49th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Adair County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $2M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $5M EAL), Hail (Medium, $905K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Adair County compare to other Iowa counties?
Adair County ranks #27 of 99 Iowa counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Adair County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Adair County since 1972, most often 7 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Adair County's $14M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.