Blaine County, Idaho Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · ID
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 65th
Blaine County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 65.4, 65th national percentile), driven primarily by avalanche and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $28M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Blaine County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 65.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 65th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Blaine County's expected losses come from avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Very High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.50 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $624K in expected annual loss and about 20.34 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $28M in expected annual loss for a population of 24K.
Beyond physical exposure, Blaine County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Blaine County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1964, including 4 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Ross Fork Fire (fire), declared in September 2022.
Among 44 Idaho counties, Blaine County ranks #8 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Avalanche | Very High | 0.50 / yr | $6M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | High | 20.34 / yr | $624K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.88 / yr | $41K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.04 / yr | $15M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.72 / yr | $808K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $24 |
| Lightning | Low | 26.03 / yr | $308K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.72 / yr | $884K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.53 / yr | $226K |
| Drought | Very Low | 75.29 / yr | $955 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $5K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.22 / yr | $46K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.20 / yr | $18K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Blaine County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1964, most recently Ross Fork Fire in September 2022. Most frequent causes: Fire (4), Biological (2), Flood (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2022 | Fire | Ross Fork Fire |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2017 | Flood | Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| August 2013 | Fire | Beaver Creek Fire |
| August 2007 | Fire | Castle Rock Fire |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| September 2000 | Fire | Wildfires |
| May 1977 | Drought | Drought |
| December 1964 | Flood | Heavy Rains & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Blaine County?
Blaine County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 65.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 65th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Blaine County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Avalanche (Very High, $6M EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $3M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $624K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Blaine County compare to other Idaho counties?
Blaine County ranks #8 of 44 Idaho counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Blaine County had?
FEMA records 10 federal disaster declarations for Blaine County since 1964, most often 4 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Ross Fork Fire, declared in September 2022.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Blaine County's $28M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.