Seminole County, Georgia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · GA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 29th
Seminole County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 29.5, 29th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Seminole County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 29.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 29th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.23 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $232K in expected annual loss and about 31.89 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Low risk — $173K in expected annual loss and about 73.98 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 9K.
Beyond physical exposure, Seminole County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Seminole County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 5 for hurricane events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Hurricane Helene (tropical storm), declared in September 2024.
Among 159 Georgia counties, Seminole County ranks #89 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.23 / yr | $4M |
| Drought | Low | 31.89 / yr | $232K |
| Lightning | Low | 73.98 / yr | $173K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.74 / yr | $642K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.21 / yr | $823K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $19K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.32 / yr | $3M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $42K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 5.47 / yr | $81K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.27 / yr | $45K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 1.77 / yr | $104K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.32 / yr | $3K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $3 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $669 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Seminole County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Hurricane Helene in September 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (5), Biological (2), Severe Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Michael |
| October 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Michael |
| September 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irma |
| September 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irma |
| April 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| March 1998 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Seminole County?
Seminole County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 29.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 29th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Seminole County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Medium, $4M EAL), Drought (Low, $232K EAL), Lightning (Low, $173K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Seminole County compare to other Georgia counties?
Seminole County ranks #89 of 159 Georgia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Seminole County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Seminole County since 1977, most often 5 for hurricane events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Hurricane Helene, declared in September 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Seminole County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.