Baldwin County, Georgia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · GA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 50th
Baldwin County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 50.0, 50th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $14M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Baldwin County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 50.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 50th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Baldwin County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $535K in expected annual loss and about 47.32 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $908K in expected annual loss and about 6.79 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $837K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $14M in expected annual loss for a population of 44K.
Beyond physical exposure, Baldwin County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Baldwin County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 5 for hurricane events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 159 Georgia counties, Baldwin County ranks #60 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 47.32 / yr | $535K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 6.79 / yr | $908K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $837K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.06 / yr | $435K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $117K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.66 / yr | $135K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.43 / yr | $8M |
| Hail | Low | 3.04 / yr | $302K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.14 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.26 / yr | $516K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.18 / yr | $321K |
| Lightning | Low | 61.16 / yr | $90K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.16 / yr | $244 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.84 / yr | $7K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Baldwin County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (5), Biological (2), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Michael |
| September 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irma |
| September 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irma |
| March 2014 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| February 2014 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Baldwin County?
Baldwin County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 50.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 50th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Baldwin County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $535K EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $908K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $837K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Baldwin County compare to other Georgia counties?
Baldwin County ranks #60 of 159 Georgia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Baldwin County had?
FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Baldwin County since 1977, most often 5 for hurricane events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Baldwin County's $14M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.