Saguache County, Colorado Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CO
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 14th
Saguache County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 14.2, 14th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and avalanche exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Saguache County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 14.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 14th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Saguache County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $163K in expected annual loss and about 0.91 events per year; avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Medium risk — $848K in expected annual loss and about 0.17 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 87.19 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 6K.
Beyond physical exposure, Saguache County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Saguache County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 64 Colorado counties, Saguache County ranks #46 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 0.91 / yr | $163K |
| Avalanche | Medium | 0.17 / yr | $848K |
| Drought | Medium | 87.19 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 59.49 / yr | $540K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $98K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $109K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.69 / yr | $316K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 14.35 / yr | $15K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.56 / yr | $59K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.25 / yr | $2M |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $11K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.20 / yr | $37K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $9K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Saguache County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (3), Biological (2), Coastal Storm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2015 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| April 2003 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| June 2002 | Fire | Wildfires |
| July 1984 | Flood | Severe Storms, Mudslides, Landslides & Flooding |
| January 1977 | Drought | Drought |
| September 1970 | Flood | Heavy Rains & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Saguache County?
Saguache County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 14.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 14th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Saguache County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $163K EAL), Avalanche (Medium, $848K EAL), Drought (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Saguache County compare to other Colorado counties?
Saguache County ranks #46 of 64 Colorado counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Saguache County had?
FEMA records 9 federal disaster declarations for Saguache County since 1970, most often 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Saguache County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.