Lake County, Colorado Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CO
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 6th
Lake County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 5.7, 6th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and avalanche exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Lake County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 5.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 6th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Lake County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $162K in expected annual loss and about 0.23 events per year; avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.13 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Low risk — $204K in expected annual loss and about 55.09 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 7K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lake County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Lake County has received 6 federal disaster declarations since 2002, including 2 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Willow Fire (fire), declared in July 2026.
Among 64 Colorado counties, Lake County ranks #57 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 0.23 / yr | $162K |
| Avalanche | High | 0.13 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Low | 55.09 / yr | $204K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $94K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $13K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 31.55 / yr | $22K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.10 / yr | $84K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $65K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.72 / yr | $6K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.22 / yr | $23K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 33.79 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lake County has received 6 federal disaster declarations since 2002, most recently Willow Fire in July 2026. Most frequent causes: Fire (2), Biological (2), Flood (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | Fire | Willow Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| June 2002 | Fire | Wildfires |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lake County?
Lake County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 5.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 6th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lake County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $162K EAL), Avalanche (High, $2M EAL), Lightning (Low, $204K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lake County compare to other Colorado counties?
Lake County ranks #57 of 64 Colorado counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lake County had?
FEMA records 6 federal disaster declarations for Lake County since 2002, most often 2 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Willow Fire, declared in July 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lake County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.