El Paso County, Colorado Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CO
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 94th
El Paso County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 94.1, 94th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $213M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates El Paso County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 94.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 94th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 14.54 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $42M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $18M in expected annual loss and about 6.68 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $213M in expected annual loss for a population of 730K.
Beyond physical exposure, El Paso County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: El Paso County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 7 for flood events and 5 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes (flood), declared in August 2023.
Among 64 Colorado counties, El Paso County ranks #3 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Very High | 14.54 / yr | $5M |
| Wildfire | High | 0.01 / yr | $42M |
| Hail | High | 6.68 / yr | $18M |
| Lightning | Very High | 59.33 / yr | $6M |
| Tornado | High | 1.48 / yr | $25M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 4.11 / yr | $105M |
| Strong Wind | High | 0.88 / yr | $3M |
| Avalanche | Medium | 0.03 / yr | $457K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 0.73 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.60 / yr | $4M |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $172 |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.02 / yr | $234K |
| Drought | Low | 47.54 / yr | $140K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.50 / yr | $1K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
El Paso County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes in August 2023. Most frequent causes: Flood (7), Fire (5), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2015 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| September 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| September 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| July 2013 | Fire | Black Forest Wildfire |
| June 2013 | Fire | Black Forest Fire |
| June 2012 | Fire | High Park and Waldo Canyon Wildfires |
| June 2012 | Fire | Waldo Canyon Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for El Paso County?
El Paso County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 94.1 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 94th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in El Paso County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Very High, $5M EAL), Wildfire (High, $42M EAL), Hail (High, $18M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does El Paso County compare to other Colorado counties?
El Paso County ranks #3 of 64 Colorado counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has El Paso County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for El Paso County since 1965, most often 7 for flood events and 5 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes, declared in August 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. El Paso County's $213M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.