Custer County, Colorado Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CO
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 4th
Custer County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 3.9, 4th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Custer County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 3.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 4th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Custer County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $29K in expected annual loss and about 0.27 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $699K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 60.96 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 5K.
Beyond physical exposure, Custer County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Custer County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1999, including 7 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Aspen Acres Fire (fire), declared in June 2026.
Among 64 Colorado counties, Custer County ranks #61 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Low | 0.27 / yr | $29K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $699K |
| Lightning | Medium | 60.96 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Low | 68.64 / yr | $48K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.56 / yr | $191K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 18.47 / yr | $37K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $72 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $22K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.79 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $60K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.27 / yr | $58K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.56 / yr | $11K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $3K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Custer County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1999, most recently Aspen Acres Fire in June 2026. Most frequent causes: Fire (7), Biological (2), Snowstorm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | Fire | Aspen Acres Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2016 | Fire | Junkins Fire |
| October 2012 | Fire | Wetmore Fire |
| June 2011 | Fire | Duckett Fire |
| January 2007 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| July 2005 | Fire | Mason Fire |
| April 2003 | Snowstorm | Snow |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Custer County?
Custer County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 3.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 4th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Custer County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Low, $29K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $699K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Custer County compare to other Colorado counties?
Custer County ranks #61 of 64 Colorado counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Custer County had?
FEMA records 13 federal disaster declarations for Custer County since 1999, most often 7 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Aspen Acres Fire, declared in June 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Custer County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.