Baca County, Colorado Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · CO
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 23th
Baca County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 23.2, 23th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Baca County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 23.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 23rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Baca County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 138.14 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $255K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $345K in expected annual loss and about 4.26 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 3K.
Beyond physical exposure, Baca County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Baca County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes (flood), declared in August 2023.
Among 64 Colorado counties, Baca County ranks #41 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 138.14 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $255K |
| Hail | Low | 4.26 / yr | $345K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.67 / yr | $489K |
| Lightning | Medium | 46.31 / yr | $185K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 8.47 / yr | $38K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.74 / yr | $356K |
| Tornado | Low | 1.28 / yr | $235K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $14K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $16K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.36 / yr | $546K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.30 / yr | $5 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Baca County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes in August 2023. Most frequent causes: Flood (3), Biological (2), Snowstorm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2015 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| January 2007 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| September 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| June 2002 | Fire | Wildfires |
| May 2001 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| August 1997 | Flood | Severe Storms, Heavy Rain, Flash Floods, Flooding, Mudslides |
| January 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Baca County?
Baca County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 23.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 23th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Baca County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $2M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $255K EAL), Hail (Low, $345K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Baca County compare to other Colorado counties?
Baca County ranks #41 of 64 Colorado counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Baca County had?
FEMA records 11 federal disaster declarations for Baca County since 1965, most often 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes, declared in August 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Baca County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.